As related analysis reported on September 3, the Chinese aluminum exportation will strongly influence the future aluminum price.

Analysis asserted that, since this year, the aluminum profiles exportation counted much more in the total aluminum products exportation, creating new a record of 62.7% in June. This was mainly due to the 11% of tax-refunding for the first half of the year and the extra 15% customs to the aluminum ingots. Therefore, lots of companies fabricated ingots into preliminary product. And some other companies predicted the government will change the refunding policy soon, so that they sold as many as profiles before it really happened. And because of these, the profiles products received the deepest damage when the government adjusted the policy in July, lessening 11% of refunding to zero. And this meant the exportation cost would be much higher, and except for some longterm purchase orders, overseas business shrinked dramatically. Considering the government levy extra 15% customs aginst the nonalloy aluminum strips, rods, profiles and special profiles since August 1, 2007, overseas would continue to fall.

After four months of stability, and the increasing supply, the bauxite market began to gloom in August, price fell from 3900-4000 yuan per ton to 3500-3600 yuan per ton. Because the capacity of bauxite was released and more projects were finished, the market supply increased.

As calculated, the first seven months of year, bauxite consumption had raised by 25.7%, including 3.056 million tons of importation, decreased by 22.4%. And the total production of it was 11.087 million tons, dramatically increased by 54.7%, which meant the general demand of bauxite was favorable, but the sustaining growth in supply suppressed the price. Meanwhile, the government levied another 15% customs against some aluminum products since August 1, the exportation of preliminary goods would be suppressed, placing negative influence on aluminum consumption, further suppressing the price.